READ TIME: 6 MINUTES
Lobo Tiggre shared with us his contrarian views on the global commodity market, highlighting his cautious stance amid growing market exuberance. He discusses key investment opportunities in copper, oil, lithium, and uranium, while expressing skepticism about nickel, cobalt, and niche metals like tungsten and antimony. Tiggre also warns of a potential hard landing for the economy, urging patience before making significant investments. With a strong bullish outlook on uranium, he provides insights into recession-resistant commodities and the critical role of market timing in capitalizing on opportunities.
By the end of this year, I think the recession denial becomes untenable.
Lobo Tiggre, Mining Analyst at http://www.IndependentSpeculator.com
Key Takeaways
It’s not possible to provide all the takeaways, as we discussed nearly 20 different commodities in this interview, but here’s my best shot:
- – Lobo Tiggre is cautious about current market optimism and believes a hard landing is imminent.
- – He is waiting for further market capitulation before buying copper, oil, lithium, or nickel.
- – Tiggre is highly bullish on uranium due to its recession-resistant fundamentals and supply constraints.
- – He sees lithium as having more recovery potential than nickel, given the shift in EV battery technology.
- – Tiggre stresses the importance of waiting for clear market signals before making significant commodity investments.
What is Lobo Tiggre Buying Right Now?
In a market teetering on a hard or soft landing, Lobo Tiggre remains patient. “I’m still in Team Hard Landing,” Tiggre states, signaling his belief that a more significant downturn is on the horizon. While others are celebrating a “no landing” scenario fueled by positive job reports, Tiggre cautions against over-optimism.
If he were to buy today, Tiggre points out two clear winners: copper and oil. Both commodities are relatively undervalued, but Tiggre isn’t rushing into these trades just yet. He believes that the market needs further correction. The bigger picture of global fiscal dominance—where governments spend trillions of dollars at deficits—leads him to conclude, “We’re spending trillions because everything’s so fine. That’s when you know something’s wrong.”
Is the Market Overreacting?
Lobo sees a worrying level of “irrational exuberance,” especially in how markets react to single data points like jobs reports. While the media might tout a singular positive report as proof of economic resilience, Tiggre dismisses these narratives as incomplete. “One blowout jobs report, and suddenly, it’s ‘no landing again?’ It’s just crazy.”
For Lobo, the reality lies elsewhere, and the obsession with short-term optimism masks the long-term risks. The notion that the U.S. economy is thriving while running a deficit of over $1.8 trillion is a paradox he finds hard to stomach. This discrepancy is what makes Tiggre cautious, preferring to wait until the herd realizes the cracks in the economic facade.
What’s the Deal with Lithium and Nickel?
When it comes to industrial metals, lithium and nickel are on Tiggre’s radar but not on his buy list—yet. Both metals have seen supply gluts that have pushed their prices down, but their long-term prospects could be appealing.
“Nickel’s broader usage is being eroded by the rise of LFP batteries,” Tiggre points out, highlighting the decreasing need for nickel in electric vehicle (EV) production. However, Tiggre remains bullish on lithium in the longer term, given its essential role in the current EV revolution. “EVs aren’t going away, even if subsidies do.”
Why Should You Care About Copper and Oil?
As a seasoned contrarian, Tiggre sees copper and oil as no-brainers in the long run. Both commodities have strong demand drivers, with copper playing a crucial role in renewable energy infrastructure and oil remaining vital for the global economy.
Yet, Tiggre is not buying copper or oil today. He’s waiting for what he believes will be further market capitulation, when prices will drop even more. “If I was convinced that Team Soft Landing was right, I would be buying copper and oil now,” he explains, “but I’m not convinced yet.”
Is It Time to Bet on Cobalt?
Like nickel, cobalt is being pushed aside by new battery technologies, particularly LFP batteries that don’t require cobalt or nickel. As Tiggre succinctly puts it, “EV recovery wouldn’t do it for cobalt. It might take a new use case to get me excited.”
For those hoping for a resurgence in cobalt demand, Tiggre’s skepticism should serve as a warning. The metal’s dependency on one major use case—batteries—makes it too risky in the face of changing technology. “It’s just not going to bounce back in the same way lithium might.”
What About Graphite and Phosphate?
Graphite and phosphate are more niche, but Tiggre’s approach to them reflects his broader strategy of caution. These materials are crucial to battery production, but their markets are fragmented and heavily dependent on quality control and long-term contracts.
“If you’ve got a deposit coming online, plus offtake agreements, that’s much more convincing,” he says. Without these, Tiggre isn’t ready to dive into the space.
Is Uranium Still a Buy?
One of the most bullish parts of Tiggre’s analysis is his view on uranium. For years, uranium has been a contrarian play, and Lobo argues that it continues to be recession-resistant. The energy source has shown a strong upward trend, with spot uranium prices correcting to long-term averages and then bouncing back.
“We’re seeing an uptick in uranium prices now,” Tiggre says, suggesting that even in a tough economic environment, the fundamentals for uranium remain sound. In fact, he sees uranium as a 9.5 on his bullish scale.
Will Uranium Stocks Rebound?
While uranium itself is trending upward, the stocks haven’t matched the metal’s price movement since 2021. Tiggre isn’t concerned. He expects uranium prices to soar into triple digits by next year, potentially causing a “hockey stick” effect in uranium stocks.
“I think the stocks are lagging behind the fundamentals,” he says. And while uranium stocks have corrected from their highs, he believes that the upward trajectory is just around the corner.
Should We Be Worried About the Recession?
When asked about timing, Tiggre doesn’t dodge the question: “By the end of this year, I think the recession denial becomes untenable.” For him, the tipping point could be any moment now. Whether it’s the next job report or a crash in CPI, Tiggre believes that the market will soon realize that the current narrative of optimism is unsustainable.
For long-term investors with a strong stomach, Tiggre still sees opportunities to ride out the turbulence and emerge on the other side. But he emphasizes caution for those without the patience or risk tolerance. “If I had a 10-year horizon, I might buy today, but for my audience, I’m not going there yet.”
Conclusion
Lobo Tiggre’s outlook is a masterclass in contrarian thinking, balancing skepticism with selective optimism. He sees a hard landing coming and advises patience before jumping into commodity plays like copper, oil, lithium, and nickel. However, for those interested in long-term exposure, uranium remains a standout in his analysis, earning a near-perfect score on his contrarian scale.
In a world where market sentiment can change on a dime, Tiggre’s approach reminds investors of the value of prudence: “Markets get overbought and oversold all the time. That’s how speculators make money.”
Lobo Tiggre Interview
This is a very brief summary of what was a lengthy interview. Don’t rely on this summary. Watch the full interview which is linked above.
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