Is a 48-Year Copper Mine Bankable in Argentina Today?

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Aldebaran Resources’ CEO John Black talked about the new PEA for the Altar copper-gold project in San Juan, Argentina, where a 60,000 tpd plan starts with open-pit mining and transitions to underground block caving over a 48-year life. The headline economics include an after-tax NPV8 of roughly US$2 billion. In this conversation, we also talked about the concentrate marketing risk from 0.5 to 2.2% arsenic in a 26% Cu concentrate and the related penalties, a parallel primary-sulfide heap-leach case (and a potential hybrid leach-plus-concentrator path), the intent to apply for RIGI, and the immediate de-risking agenda, drilling, water work, tailings phasing and permitting, aimed at advancing to PFS on an aggressive timeline.

TLDR

  1. PEA scope and economics
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    The PEA outlines a 60,000 tpd mine starting with roughly 9 years of open-pit mining to fund development of three underground block-cave areas (Altar East, United, Central) accessed by twin 3-km declines. The plan runs 48 years and, at the stated price deck (US$4.35/lb Cu, US$2,500/oz Au, US$27/oz Ag), shows after-tax NPV8 of about US$2 billion, IRR just over 20%, ~4-year payback, and early-life unit costs near US$1.70/lb C1 and ~US$2.25/lb AISC. John explained that value is concentrated in the first two decades; years 21 to 48 add optionality, not much present value.
  2. Cost basis and de-risking
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    Cost inputs were benchmarked to operating mines, not to older paper studies, according to the CEO. The team notes recent inflation in build and operating costs and argues that many pre-development studies older than a year are poor comparators. The immediate focus shifts to PFS-level de-risking, with four rigs being mobilized for infill, geotechnical and hydrology drilling, alongside ABA work, environmental monitoring, and water-well/pump testing.
  3. Concentrate risk
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    The base flowsheet produces a ~26% Cu concentrate with arsenic modeled at 0.5 to 2.2%, implying potential penalties (cited around US$0.70/lb Cu in the discussion). CEO John Black points to smelter blending and alternative processing routes to manage payability, but acknowledges this is a commercial risk area that must be dealt with in contracts, not slides.
  4. Flowsheet alternatives
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    A parallel primary-sulfide heap-leach case (same 60,000 tpd mining scale) was run, and it showed lower NPV, higher life-of-mine free cash flow, and lower C1/AISC relative to the concentrator scenario. The trade-off is forfeiting precious-metal recovery. John also said that heap-leach chemistry can immobilize arsenic as scorodite in the pads. Choice of route will be driven by economics, metallurgy and concentrate marketing, and may include a hybrid approach that preserves precious-metal value where warranted.
  5. Catalysts and timing
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    There are two near-term catalysts. First, Aldebaran plans to submit a RIGI application off the PEA before the July window closes, noting evolving guidance on spend-timing obligations and a preference to lock fiscal terms early. Second, once the NI 43-101 is filed, the Nuton partner has 20 business days to elect the next step with a US$30 million cash payment to maintain its option. These, plus the current drill program, are the practical milestones before a PFS-driven decision point.

Aldebaran Resources CEO Interview With John Black

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