As the European Central Bank surprised the market and raised interest rates for the first time in over a decade, the Euro gained against the dollar and that had all the dollar-denominated commodities going up.
However, later in the week, bad PMI data had the industry side of silver pulling down on its price.
Let’s see what happened last week, and what experts are expecting.
What are experts saying about commodities?
- Lobo Tiggre is not yet calling this the “bottom” for gold & silver stocks, but he thinks uranium is different. He says the supply deficit in uranium is more important than any other macro development.
- Andy Hoese is still bullish on housing and wants to see inventories at least double from this level for him to start rethinking the thesis.
- Christian Kargl-Simard is bullish on copper in the long run, but thinks volatility is ahead.
- FireFox Gold, which is a paying customer of Resource Talks, has a lot more ground to cover in Finland.
What happened in commodities this week?
Commodities had an ok week, in the face of a falling dollar index.
- Copper +2.06%
- Gold +1.17%
- Silver -1.54%
- Uranium -0.81%
- DXY -1.33%
What moved commodities this week?
Gold & Silver
Interestingly enough, gold and silver did not both close the week in the green.
While most people are calling for a bottom, Lobo Tiggre isn’t. He told me “we aren’t quite there yet”. I asked him to explain to me what was going on and when he’d be a buyer.
Summed up, Lobo’s waiting for next week’s FED decision on interest rates. If the FED raises interest rates by more than 75 basis points and the market doesn’t collapse, then he would be a buyer.
If you want to be kept up-to-date with Lobo’s buying schedule, as well as see which stocks he’s buying before he’s even bought them, consider his hand-holding newsletter.
For this week’s copper digest, I talked to Christian Kargl-Simard, who I had on a few weeks ago to give me an overview of the copper thesis.
Christian had previously told me that he thinks “$4 copper is the new normal“. With copper now headed for the $3 level, I had to ask him what he thinks again.
Although downward pressure in the short term could be bad for copper alongside other metals, in the long term Christian doesn’t see any other way but up.
In the meanwhile, we’re consistently getting news out of Soth America about governments blocking copper mining projects, as well as potentially raising taxes on mining companies which pushes mining behemoths like BHP, and Anglo American to reconsider their investment plans for copper exploration. Over the next decade, as we increase our demand for copper, this will result in an even larger supply deficit and thus push copper prices higher.
I didn’t invite anybody to talk about uranium specifically this week, but I will be inviting Chapman over for next week’s digest as there are more interesting news to discuss next week than there were this week.
Most interesting news within the energy space this week were about nuclear energy.
Belgium finally reached an initial deal to prolong nuclear for another 10 years.
Germany started rethinking nuclear power.
Egypt poured the first concrete for its first nuclear power plant.
And some other SMR-related decisions were took last week, but nothing that influences the price of uranium in the next year.
Economic Calendar for Next Week
Below, you will find an overview of economic news and data expected next week. I only watch the ones that I deem important for my gold-silver-copper-uranium-focused portfolio. Did I miss something? Please do let me know.
- Germany’s Entrepreneurs’ Sentiment (Ifo Business Climate Index): the higher the number, the more confident Germany’s manufacturing, service, trade, and construction sectors are in the economy.
- Previous: 92.3
- Expected 90.2
- US Consumer Confidence: the higher the number, the more confident US consumers are.
- Previous: 98.7
- Expected: 97.3
- US New Home Sales
- Previous: 696K
- Expected: 664K
- Australia Inflation Number (CPI)
- Previous: 5.1%
- Expected: 6.3%
- US Pening Home Sales
- Previous: 0.7%
- Expected: -1.5%
- !!! FED INTEREST RATES DECISION !!!
- Cameco Earnings Report
- US Jobless claims
- Previous: 251K
- Expected: 253K
- US GDP Growth
- Previous: -1.6%
- Expected: +0.4%
- EU GDP
- Previous: 5.4%
- Expected: ?
- EU CPI
- Previous: 8.6%
- Expected: 8.7%
- US Core Personal Consumption Expenditure
- Previous: 0.3%
- Expected: 0.5%
- China Manufacturing PMI
- Previous: 50.2
- Expected: 50.5
Antonio Atanasov is not an investment advisor. Antonio Atanasov owns shares of companies mentioned in this publication. Some of the companies mentioned in this video and/or publication are paying customers of Resource Talks. More specifically, Core Assets and FireFox are paying customers. The information provided in this publication – and all other publications by Resource Talks – is impersonal in nature and meant for general information purposes only. Before taking any action on any investment, it is imperative that you consult with multiple licensed, experienced, and qualified investment advisors. Get numerous opinions before taking your own decision in the end. The minimum risk on any investment mentioned in this publication is 100% loss of capital.
Shortly: you will lose all of your money and possibly most of your brain cells if you listen to talking heads on the internet. Especially if they have orange hair and no experience (me).
Readers are cautioned that this presentation likely contains forward-looking statements about expected future events and the financial and operating performance of any companies potentially discussed herein. Reality often varies from people’s expectations. Managements like over-promising and under-delivering. If a manager was speaking in here, beware. Readers are encouraged to read the Cautionary Note on Forward-Looking Information and to consult the Company’s Annual Information Form, which is available on www.sedar.com. Reading the full disclaimer on the disclaimer page on this website is mandatory.
00:00 Important warning
02:00 Lobo Tiggre on gold & silver
25:00 Andy on housing & uranium
01:11:00 Christian on copper
01:31:00 FireFox Gold Interview
02:00:00 Economic calendar for next week
Was there something wrong with what the guests said? Did I fail to ask an important question? Did I make a mistake? Please tell me about it. Criticism and skepticism are highly welcome and help me learn. Thank you.