Inflation – at least as measured by the CPI – seems to be slowing down, and the Consumer Confidence Index seems to be gaining strength. That’s pushed investors into believing that real inflation is also coming down, and therefore, risk-on assets are a good investment. This belief brought a very good week for stocks, with all three major US indices being up nicely.
Is this a reality-based rally, though? 8.5% is nothing to celebrate. However, the 8.5% is not even the real inflation. ShadowStats, measures inflation using pre-1980 methodology and calculates a CPI of well over 15%.
That notwithstanding, the market bought the main narrative that the FED will now be less aggressive with QT – and potentially turn back to the good old QE – and rate hikes, and took to the risk-on assets.
Will this rally hold beyond the FED’s September meeting, though? Nobody can say, but Lobo Tiggre says that the rally is likely to continue throughout the rest of the summer, and that, if the FED does a 50 basis points rate hike, the markets might even rally into year-end.
Uranium, on the other hand, didn’t have a great week price-wise, despite all the positive fundamental developments in the space.
What happened in commodities this week?
Commodities had an overall good week, besides uranium.
- Copper: +3.28%
- Gold +1.36%
- Silver +4.31%
- Uranium -6.16%
- DXY -0.85%
What are experts saying about commodities?
- Andy Hoese, from the Finding Value YouTube channel told me that he thinks we’re going to have stagflation for the foreseable future. He thinks oil and other commodities are going higher, and he doesn’t yet expect a crash in the housing market as the inventory of available (to-move-in) homes is still relatively low while the demand has not yet crashed.
- Mark Nelson told me that the situation at the Zaporizhzha nuclear power plants is not as bad as the broad media makes it look like and that uranium investors should not be all too worried about what’s happening there, as the plant can easily withstand the shelling that’s been going on without it being a nuclear safety threat.
- Joe Piekenbrock & Kitt Mars explained to me why their Western Alaska – which is a paying customer of Resource Talks – has seen its share price increase over 5 times YTD, and why CRED deposits are so sought-after.
- China Industrial Production YoY
- Previous: 3.9%
- Expected: 4.6%
- Not much
- US Building Permits
- Previous: 1.696M
- Forecast: 1.640M
- Canada CPI
- Previous: 8.1%
- Forecast: 7.6%
- EU GDP
- Previous: 4%
- Forecast: 4%
- US July Core Retail Sales (MoM)
- Previous: 1%
- Forecast: -0.1%
- US July Retail Sales (MoM)
- Previous: 1%
- Forecast: 0.1%
- FOMS Meeting Minutes
- EU CPI
- Previous: 8.9%
- Forecast: 8.9%
- US Jobless Claim
- Previous: 262K
- Forecast: 265K
- US Existing Home Sales
- Previous: 5.12M
- Expected: 4.88M
- Canada Core Retail Sales
- Previous: 1.9%
- Forecast: 0.6%
Antonio Atanasov is not an investment advisor. Antonio Atanasov might own shares of companies mentioned in this publication. Always assume him biased. Some of the companies mentioned in this video and/or publication are paying customers of Resource Talks. More specifically, Core Assets and Western Alaska are paying to be mentioned in this publication. The information provided in this publication – and all other publications by Resource Talks – is impersonal in nature and meant for general information purposes only. Before taking any action on any investment, it is imperative that you consult with multiple licensed, experienced, and qualified investment advisors. Get numerous opinions before taking your own decision in the end. The minimum risk on any investment mentioned in this publication is 100% loss of capital.
Shortly: you will lose all of your money and possibly most of your brain cells if you listen to talking heads on the internet. Especially if they have orange hair and no experience (me).
Readers are cautioned that this presentation likely contains forward-looking statements about expected future events and the financial and operating performance of any companies potentially discussed herein. Reality often varies from people’s expectations. Managements like over-promising and under-delivering. If a manager was speaking in here, beware. Readers are encouraged to read the Cautionary Note on Forward-Looking Information and to consult the Company’s Annual Information Form, which is available on www.sedar.com. Reading the full disclaimer on the disclaimer page on this website is mandatory.
00:00 Important disclaimer
03:20 Andy on housing, inflation & commodities
22:50 Why are these CRD stocks exploding?
01:02:00 Is the future of uranium in danger?
01:25:00 Economic calendar for next week
Was there something wrong with what the guests said? Did I fail to ask an important question? Did I make a mistake? Please tell me about it. Criticism and skepticism are highly welcome and help me learn. Thank you.