Lobo Tiggre, founder of Independent Speculator and a long-time analyst of junior mining equities, gave me a frank opinion on today’s selective bull market in mining equities and how to navigate it with rules, not hope. The conversation focused on his bottom-up, catalyst-driven approach, the discipline of scaling out with his “Upside Maximizer”, and why he is carrying roughly 35% cash while waiting to rotate (most likely into copper). He outlined the traits he favors in gold and silver developers, including shovel-ready projects with permits and straightforward paths, and flagged common hazards such as lifestyle issuers, unfunded “optionality,” and stories that haven’t moved despite stronger metals prices. The discussion also covered tactical positioning into tax-loss season and the risk of a manic blow-off in precious metals, with an emphasis on taking profits before the cycle snaps back to reality, which it always does … eventually.

TLDR

1. Rules
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   Lobo Tiggre anchors the whole conversation in process. He’d rather bank steady, repeatable gains than swing for moonshots, and he enforces that with pre-set selling (which he calls the “Upside Maximizer”) that scales out into strength so profits are realised, not theoretical. The emphasis is on not getting wiped out, trimming winners methodically, and refusing to add just because a chart is vertical.
2. Selection
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   Lobo calls this a real bull market, but a narrow one. Producers led, the best developers followed, and a tranche of juniors still isn’t participating. If a stock hasn’t responded to a big move in the metal like this one, he treats it as a red flag rather than a puzzle. The focus stays bottom-up and catalyst-driven, with the pre-production sweet spot (PPSS) still a preferred hunting ground where permits and straightforward paths matter.
3. Profits
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   Despite strength, he’s sitting on roughly 35% cash, a deliberate by-product of taking profits and refusing to “buy high and hope to sell higher.” That cash is earmarked for rotation, with copper the most likely destination when the set up improves from an economic and a geopolitical standpoint. Lobo believes in keeping dry powder, redeploying on his own terms, and letting the market come to him, instead of chasing it.
4. Landmines
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   The biggest risk for speculators in this environment, according to Lobo, is chasing parabolic moves without an exit plan and paying up for unfunded “optionality.” He singles out lifestyle companies that burn G&A, issuers that haven’t moved despite strong metals, and stories that hand-wave permits, power or jurisdictional realities. If NAV discipline isn’t visible and the path to funding isn’t credible, he’d rather pass and protect capital.
5. Cycle Management
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   Lobo flags a real possibility of a manic blow-off in gold and silver and ties that directly to sell discipline. Enjoy it, but take money off the table because crashes follow blow-offs. With tax-loss season approaching, he also thinks tactically about offsetting gains and resetting positions. The through line is consistent. Lobo likes to stay pragmatic, let the tape confirm, and keep his rules tighter than his hopes.

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