Overlooked Investing Rules for Bull Markets by Ian Cassel

Ian Cassel is a micro-cap investor and the founder of MicroCapClub who runs a concentrated public-equities fund, and in this conversation we covered: navigating bull-market FOMO and crowd behavior, underwriting frameworks and time horizons, position sizing, trimming, and cash/portfolio construction in bull vs. bear markets, how to source ideas and move quickly (including use of AI tools), plus the value of site visits and long management meetings, differences between producers and explorecos, milestone discipline, dilution/financing mechanics, and insider buying vs. paid IR, marketing vs. drilling spend and paper overhang, information-diet filtering to separate signal from noise, and cycle context across resources, including majors’ capital allocation, liquidity, and implications for junior partnerships/M&A.

TLTW

  1. Anchor to reality, not spot
    Underwrite new resource ideas at a lower deck than today (his gold frame was ~$2,700/oz, not $3,500–$10,000), and only back positions that can plausibly double in ~3 years (~25% CAGR) at that base. Crowd enthusiasm and rising share prices don’t equal a thesis, and price action must never substitute for execution.
  2. Sell and size with discipline
    If the market has pulled forward 3 to 4 years of returns, trim or exit. Use a pain test on big winners, such as; can you live with a 40% drawdown? And prefer trimming and letting A-teams re-earn weight over all-or-nothing approach. Run near fully invested (~4% cash), stay concentrated (~15 names, top 5 ≈60%), and keep resource exposure focused (~20% of AUM across three names).
  3. Buy faster but smaller in bulls
    Keep a wide idea net and, when the five core checks line up, take a 1 to 5% toehold and deepen diligence while properly sized. AI/transcript search can get you ~60% up the curve, but the real edge still comes from site visits and >2-hour management time where the sales veneer fades. A stock up 100 or 200% can still be a buy if the 3-year business case is intact.
  4. Capital and alignment beat promotion
    Every raise should be per-share accretive on a dated path and avoid toxic debt/streams. For explorecos, respect paper overhang, because promotion won’t clear it, only progress will. The best IR is insider buying. Of course,consistent open-market purchases and token participation in placings signal conviction, while $100 “optics” buys are noise, and some insider selling is just life, so judge patterns and context.
  5. Own execution, eject excuses, respect shelf-life
    Many micro-caps briefly over-earn on one-off spurts then revert, so don’t let “wait another quarter” names colonize the portfolio. Track dated milestones and sell before the crowd when cracks appear. Cycle backdrop matters, too. Cash-rich producers and majors under-investing in exploration imply a lagged partnership/M&A bid for juniors. So, keep core quality exposure while toe-dipping into hated sectors selectively.

Ian Cassel MicroCapClub Interview

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