Lobo Tiggre (Independent Speculator) talks about where junior mining sits in the market cycle heading into 2026, whether the current metals strength signals a broader commodity supercycle, and how he is positioned to not waste a bull market. He talked about profit-taking discipline, valuation guardrails (NAV/NPV), avoiding FOMO and all-time highs, where he is (and is not) deploying capital, how he exits positions, and what jurisdictional/political risk he’s not willing to take.

TLDR

Tiggre argues the recent move looks broader than just the monetary metals, with base metals also ripping, which has him reconsidering a commodity supercycle framework that would imply an earlier-stage trend rather than late-cycle euphoria. He stays bullish on the fundamental need for mined materials (energy transition, data centers/electrification, rearmament, reshoring) but warns hype elsewhere (AI/valuation excess) can create violent counter-moves and volatility. His practical playbook is not to chase highs, but to demand a value proposition (discounts to NPV/NAV still matter), take profits systematically so gains don’t evaporate, and use volatility as a friend to add exposure. He is redeploying selectively (some copper on his list, and some recent buys in uranium), while emphasizing jurisdictional risk can force a categorical exit.

1. He’s leaning toward a broad metals regime shift, not just a gold-and-silver story.
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   Tiggre points to simultaneous strength across base metals (e.g: nickel spiking intraday) alongside precious metals to suggest the market is starting to price critical minerals as genuinely scarce, supply-constrained, and geopolitically concentrated. If that framing is right, he implies the cycle feels earlier than many think, with generalist attention potentially just starting to show up, which could set up a strong 2026 across multiple commodities rather than a single-metal trade.
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2. Don’t waste the bull market by letting process break down.
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   Tiggre repeats that “nothing goes up in a straight line,” so he avoids FOMO, waits for dips, and has a pre-planned profit strategy (his own he calls the “upside maximizer”). He stresses realized gains matter, using his own example of pulling money out to pay off a mortgage on a beach house in Puerto Rico while still being massively long. That means, he keeps exposure when buying the thesis, but enforces rules so paper profits don’t round-trip in the inevitable drawdowns. Nobody goes broke taking profits, even if the “to the moon” crowd throws eggs (which, btw, are cheaper again).
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3. Valuation and project-stage discipline matter more in a bull market, not less.
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   For producers, he still expects a NAV multiple and treats big discounts to NAV as the market flagging company-specific problems. For developers/pre-producers, he insists the market should apply a discount to NPV because execution risk is real and feasibility-study price decks are conservative for a reason. He warns against the classic newsletter-writer trap of relative valuation in mania periods (Company A is cheap versus Company B even though both could be worth close to zero if there’s no real asset), and he draws a hard line on paying >$100M market caps for pure pre-discovery stories without credible evidence of a deposit. He prefers what he calls “success in progress” discovery-to-resource building phases (after the first hole, when repeatable results reduce guesswork), and notes copper juniors are “slim pickings” compared to the endless “add an animal to Silver” crowd.
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