READ TIME: 9 MINUTES
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Luc ten Have delivered a high-level, unfiltered examination of what’s actually working—and what’s not—in junior mining today. Focused on the post-conference environment, it explored how discoveries, especially porphyry-related ones, are driving the only real market traction, while hype-driven, pre-discovery plays are falling flat. Luc walked through specific case studies—including Aras Minerals, and San Lorenzo—discussing investment timing, risk assessment, and how he navigates greed, fear, and FOMO. The discussion also unpacked themes like financing risk, the importance of stewardship, and the market’s short-term reaction patterns, offering a real-world window into discovery investing.
TL;DR
- 1. Exceptional drill results—especially porphyry discoveries—are currently one of the very few reliable catalysts for junior mining stock appreciation.
- 2. Conferences can offer a real edge through immediate access to management and context, but buying off the floor is still emotionally risky and often unwise.
- 3. Heavy pre-discovery promotion without results leads to steep investor losses, while genuine stewardship (credible backers) remains a strong de-risking factor.
- 4. San Lorenzo is a high-risk, high-potential case with strong geological potential, poor communication, and a skeleton team—making it both compelling and precarious.
- 5. Discovery investing is psychologically and strategically difficult—identifying winners is only half the battle; knowing when to buy, sell, or sit tight is the real test.
What did the 2025 Vancouver and Toronto conferences reveal?
Luc ten Have attended both the Vancouver and Toronto mining conferences this year, but not the BMO in Miami – “they don’t invite me for sure,” he quipped.
Although not always clear during the fact, he found unexpected value on the ground.
At Vancouver’s Metal Investor Forum, he had early access to Amarc’s porphyry copper discovery. “We were the first or maybe the second to talk to Amarc in the morning,” he said. That face-to-face access provided more depth than a press release ever could, allowing him to buy not just Amarc but also nearby companies like TDG.
At PDAC in Toronto, he discovered San Lorenzo, a long-ignored explorer in Chile. “I talked to them on the phone and over email, but never in person,” Luc noted. That in-person context gave him the confidence to invest—again, early—and he profited.
Is buying on the conference floor smart—or emotional?
Buying straight off a conference floor is notoriously risky. Luc acknowledges this: “If you talk to someone and there’s nothing new, but it’s just a very good story… you have to wait a couple of days and just think about it.”
Still, there’s nuance. If discovery news is fresh and the investor gets unique context others haven’t yet digested, “you could say, ‘Hey, I have a bit of an edge.’”
But he doesn’t sugarcoat the risk: “Most people would actually get kind of over-excited. It’s really, really different—especially if you have a good salesperson pitching you.”
What’s driving junior mining stocks in 2025?
Luc reviewed a list of top-performing juniors year-to-date and noticed a unifying theme: porphyry discoveries.
“Most of them are porphyry discovery-related,” he said, pointing to Amarc and TDG as examples. “Again, not saying all these will work—but right now, exceptional drill holes is the only thing that moves stock prices.”
Are conferences still worth attending if stocks don’t move?
Luc observed that despite companies investing significant time and resources into attending conferences—often meeting with 20 or 30 investors in a single week—there is frequently no meaningful uptick in share price or trading volume in the immediate aftermath.
“You want to see some result from it,” he noted, suggesting that if a company meets dozens of investors and not even $10,000 worth of extra volume appears, it’s either a sign that investors are becoming more disciplined, or that there simply isn’t much genuine interest.
However, he emphasized that this doesn’t make conference attendance pointless. In his view, the true value lies in repetition and recognition. By regularly showing up and telling the story, a company builds mindshare among investors—even if they don’t buy right away. Then, when the company eventually delivers real news, “people actually care” because they’ve already been primed. It’s a form of long-tail marketing in a market that often demands short-term results.
What kinds of stories don’t work in this market?
Heavy promotion without results.
One of the clearest patterns highlighted in this conversation is the consistent failure of heavily promoted exploration stories that haven’t yet delivered material results.
What doesn’t seem to work is when an exploration company gets heavily promoted before discovery. Then the discovery is not up to expectations. In these cases, it’s not just that the drill results disappoint—it’s that the market had been conditioned to expect (and attribute value for) something extraordinary long before the geology was ready to deliver it.
The problem isn’t necessarily the news itself, but the disconnect between promotion and reality. When marketing outpaces substance, the inevitable letdown becomes sharper, and retail investors—many of whom bought into the pre-drill narrative—absorb the loss.
The takeaway is clear: in this market, hope isn’t a catalyst—results are.
Why do discoveries and big-name backers drive the narrative?
Discovery and stewardship are the two themes that matter most in the current market, Luc argues.
Discovery is straightforward: “It’s one of the few businesses in the world where you can be worth $5 million on Monday and $50 million on Tuesday,” he said. One intercept can shift risk perception rapidly.
Stewardship—meaning investment from a credible name—matters just as much. “The biggest risk in this business is probably financing,” Luc said. So when a Lundin or a Lassonde comes in, “that’s a big de-risking event.”
How does San Lorenzo fit into all of this?
San Lorenzo, a company Luc has a position in, is a standout example for Luc. Despite making a significant gold-copper discovery in Chile, the company remained largely ignored by the market until very recently.
He traces his involvement back two years, when San Lorenzo drilled 200+ meters of mineralization, including a high-grade core. “I was like, if you drill such a hole in Chile somewhere where you never drilled and remain a $3 million company, what’s wrong?”
His early position paid off—San Lorenzo’s share price has moved from $0.05 to $0.40 in recent weeks. Still, Luc remains cautious. “They have no major backers, no royalty encumbrances, but the team is just two people—a chairman and a geologist. The presentations are bad. The news releases lack sections and intervals. It’s a one-man-band trying to play the symphony.”
Luc has taken the time to build his own maps, talk to management, and dig into Chile’s geological context, including comparisons to El Salvador and Filo. He sees potential—but also risk. “If those next assays are disappointing, the stock may go back again.”
What are the major risks with San Lorenzo?
There are three primary risks for most exploration companies: financing, geology, and jurisdiction.
The company has ~$1.5 million in cash (from recent warrant exercises) but carries some debt. The chairman has personally loaned $2 million to avoid dilution—convertible partially at $0.20.
“That’s odd,” Luc admits. “Normally a loan is a red flag. But in this case, it’s more about protecting the share structure.”
He also notes the project’s geological merits: multiple zones, gold veins with high-grade hits over 1.5 kilometers, and a new porphyry discovery at Soledad Blanco.
“If one of those pending holes hits… I can’t imagine majors not being interested.”
Still, retail euphoria is real. “If the porphyry results disappoint, this could go to $0.20. The market doesn’t weigh things rationally.”
So why hold? Why not sell?
Luc’s average cost is around $0.12. “I’m taking the risk,” he said. “I think this valuation is low… even if the next holes are dusters.”
He points to the 100%-owned land, lack of royalties, and multiple targets. “This company deserves a very big program—maybe too big for them. Maybe they joint venture it.”
Even if the share price dips, he sees strategic optionality. “They could bring in a big partner, get a new CEO, restructure.”
How does Luc think about when to take profits?
Luc admits to being better at buying than selling. “I’ve sold too early very often—and sometimes not sold when I should have.”
He acknowledges that initial discovery phases are volatile: “Greed and fear are very close. You want in early—but what happens if the next drill hole flops?”
In San Lorenzo’s case, he already took some profit in 2023. “I sold at $0.16–$0.18 and bought back some at $0.21. So I’ve locked in gains and my risk is defined.”
Still, he’s not dogmatic. “I’m not saying it’s a good decision. But I’ve decided to take the risk and ride it.”
Has Luc made money on discoveries before?
“Yes,” he said plainly. “Both sold too early and held too long.”
He’s had success identifying early-stage discoveries—Snowline and others—but managing the position post-buy is “the hardest part of this business.”
“Identifying and buying is the easy part,” Luc said. “Knowing what to do next is the real challenge.”
What about the London-listed names?
Luc discussed Great Southern Copper, a UK-listed junior with a recent 20-meter intercept of 3.3% copper and 270 g/t silver in Chile.
“I follow the London news—I almost never buy it,” he said. “This result is probably supergene—not indicative of a full system.”
He also pointed to historical examples like Mariana Resources and SolGold, noting that it took a Canadian listing or a big investor (like Sandstorm) to get proper market traction.
“I only want to buy London juniors when I really feel it’s a tier-one discovery.”
Until the assays arrive, it’s all risk and judgment.
Luc ten Have Full Interview
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