Can a $300M Tungsten Company Really Build a Mine by 2027?

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Allied Critical is developing two past-producing tungsten projects (Borralha and Vila Verde) in northern Portugal. The primary commodity is tungsten (wolframite/WO₃). This interview covered the recently published Preliminary Economic Assessment for Borralha, a new breccia discovery called the Venise Breccia, the status of environmental permitting, financing strategy for the build-out, and the pilot plant plans at Vila Verde.


TL;DR

The Borralha PEA shows an after-tax NPV8 of approximately USD $500M and an IRR of nearly 50%, based on a conservative long-term tungsten price of $1,000/MTU, with capex of ~USD $91M, an 11-year mine life, and a 2.2-year payback. Management says the project breaks even on a cash-cost basis at around $300–400/MTU. A favorable environmental impact declaration (DIA) was received from Portugal’s environmental agency in January 2026, with conditions management expects to satisfy by Q3–Q4 2026. A 20,000-metre drill program is underway and has already hit the previously undrilled Venise Breccia (217 metres downhole of breccia-hosted tungsten mineralization) though assays are still pending. The company had roughly C$12M in cash at the time of the interview, says it is under no immediate pressure to raise equity, and is in advanced conversations with offtakers and project finance providers.


What have they done for shareholders lately?

Allied recently published a PEA on Borralha (after-tax NPV8 ~USD $500M at $1,000/MTU, ~50% IRR, ~USD $91M capex, 11-year LOM, 2.2-year payback). On January 12, 2026, the Portuguese Environment Agency issued a favorable DIA with standard conditions attached, which management says do not require any material redesign of the mine or plant. Additionally, a 20,000-metre 2026 drill program was launched. Inside that program, the very first hole into the previously undrilled Venise Breccia (located roughly 400 metres from the Santa Helena Breccia, which underpins the PEA) intercepted over 217 metres of breccia-hosted tungsten mineralization with visible wolframite, molybdenite, and chalcopyrite. Assays are pending with results expected within three to four weeks of the interview.

How much money do they have and what are they spending it on?

Roy said the company had approximately C$12M in treasury at the time of interview. He said this is budgeted toward completing the 20,000-metre drill program and a Definitive Feasibility Study in 2026. The company also has approximately 19 million warrants and 13 million options outstanding (nearly all of which deeply in the money) which Bonnell said are trickling in additional cash weekly and reduce near-term financing pressure. No equity raise was described as imminent. The company is in active conversations with offtakers and project finance providers for the ~USD $91M capex build-out. CEO Bonnell mentioned government funding programs in Portugal, the US, and Canada as potential non-dilutive or low-cost sources. A royalty was also mentioned as one option that’s still on the table.

Upcoming catalysts

On the technical/operational side, Venise Breccia assay results are expected within approximately three to four weeks of the interview. An updated Mineral Resource Estimate is implied by the active infill and step-out drilling. A DFS is targeted for completion sometime in 2026. DIA conditions (primarily detailed hydrogeological studies, geotechnical data, and an environmental monitoring plan) are targeted for submission to regulators by Q4 2026. After submission, management cited a roughly 50-day review window. On the corporate side, formal offtake agreement announcements and project financing disclosures are expected in the near-term. Management is also actively evaluating a US exchange uplisting, though no firm timeline was provided. Construction start at Borralha is targeted for 2027. The Vila Verde pilot plant, which can process 150,000 tonnes per year under an existing experimental license without additional permitting, is seen as a faster path to initial revenue and smelter relationships.

Risks

The most material near-term risk is financing the capex of ~USD $91M, which is well beyond what the current treasury covers, and no project financing has been secured or announced yet. Tungsten price volatility is a real risk as well, even though management told me the project is cash-positive above $400/MTU. Permitting still has steps remaining, with the DIA conditions needed to be formally satisfied, submitted, and approved, which introduces regulatory timing risk on the path to a 2027 construction start. The Venise Breccia discovery, while visually encouraging, has no assays yet. Management itself acknowledged that “time is the enemy of all deals,” meaning commodity windows can close before a junior can get to production.


Allied Critical Metals Interview

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Can a $300M Tungsten Company Really Build a Mine by 2027?

Allied Critical is developing two past-producing tungsten projects (Borralha and Vila Verde) in northern Portugal. The primary commodity is tungsten (wolframite/WO₃). This interview covered the recently published Preliminary Economic Assessment

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