TRX Gold owns 55% of the producing Buckreef Gold Project in the Geita region of northwestern Tanzania. The other 45% is held by STAMICO, the Tanzanian state mining company. In this interview, we talked about the plant expansion, self-funded growth, costs and recoveries, exploration at Stamford Bridge and Anfield, the updated PEA, and the joint venture terms with the government.
TL;DR
This story is about expansion. They’re adding a 3,500 tpd SAG/ball mill next to the existing 2,000 tpd plant, for about 5,500 tpd of theoretical capacity. Stephen expects production to go from about 30,000 oz to over 80,000 oz, and EBITDA from a run rate of about US$80M today to “well over” US$200M. He says all of it gets paid for from cash flow. TRX has no debt, no warrants, and hasn’t raised equity since 2022. Two dates slipped. The new mill now lands in the first half of fiscal 2028. The updated PEA has moved to roughly early calendar 2027 so it can include new drill results. If he had to pick one place for exploration money, he told me it would be Stamford Bridge.
What have they done for shareholders lately?
Fiscal 2026 production was 29,650 oz, up from 18,935 oz the year before and at the top end of guidance. Q3 plant recovery reached 84.9%. They drilled 14,500 m in 175 holes, and he confirmed not all of those assays are out yet. They’re buying their own RC and diamond rigs, and some are already on site. Their own crushing circuit is now running, replacing an expensive contractor mobile crusher, and a battery system is going in to cut diesel use caused by unstable grid power. TRX was recently added to the GDXJ, which holds about 8M shares, and he said Citadel is now among the institutional holders. When he joined about five years ago, the company had under US$2M in cash and the stock traded around US$0.60.
How much money do they have and what are they spending it on?
He didn’t give a cash balance. He said they have no debt and about US$20M in undrawn credit lines with local Tanzanian banks. They won’t touch the ATM, and they’d use debt before equity if they needed money. Trailing 12-month operating cash flow was about US$28.9M. Net investment in fiscal 2026, covering working capital and capex, was around US$42M as of Q3. Fiscal 2027 capex is planned at about US$50M, funded from cash flow. He deliberately keeps free cash flow close to zero by putting everything back into the plant and drilling. Cash G&A runs about US$5M to US$6M. Cash costs are currently around US$1,500/oz, in line with the early years of the PEA. He estimates AISC including G&A at about US$2,000 to US$2,100/oz, before expansion capex. His view is that expansion spending can be slowed down if gold falls.
Upcoming catalysts
On the technical side, you should see results from the rest of the fiscal 2026 drilling, more work at Stamford Bridge and Anfield, and a first look at the 10 geophysical targets. The updated PEA is likely early calendar 2027 and should bring some previously excluded ounces back in at a lower cutoff. On the operational side, the last crown pillar from the old underground workings comes out next month in a zone grading 5 to 6 g/t. The TSF3 tailings facility comes online early in the new year. The new mill follows in the first half of fiscal 2028. On the corporate side, fiscal 2027 budget and guidance are being finalized now, and talks with the government on new JV terms continue with no timeline.
Risks
Execution and timing come first. The mill has already slipped from Q2 to Q4 on the contractor’s 12 to 18 month schedule, and the CEO admits they rely on others to build it. The existing mills run at about 1,750 to 1,800 tpd, not 2,000, and he doesn’t expect nameplate in 2027 because harder ore would hurt recovery. TSF3 is on the critical path and will need re-permitting once it’s online. The government JV talks are slow and political. STAMICO’s 45% is currently dilutable to zero, but the newer law would mean a 16% free carried interest plus equal sharing of economic benefits. At US$3,000 gold he said they’d slow the expansion or add debt. Quarterly grades will vary because it’s a single asset. Artisanal miners work the edges of the licence. The only thing that keeps him up at night, he said, is people.
TRX Gold CEO Interview
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