Trader Ferg (Fergus Cullen) is a cycle-driven, contrarian investor who hunts maximum pessimism, sizes into hard assets (gold, PGMs, uranium) over miners, and builds positions in ignored EM/Asian small caps and capital-starved energy services like marine seismic. In this conversation, we talk about his tight playbook on reading sentiment extremes, why PGMs are his cleanest asymmetric bet now, how he’s retooled uranium toward physical and clean optionality, the exact entry discipline he uses, when he sells, how he structures risk, and unvarnished mistakes that anchor his process.

TLTW

1. Asia up, West stretched.
   Expect an Asian-led upswing as regional trade increasingly settles in local currencies (and sometimes gold), easing the “must hoard USD” constraint and unleashing energy-driven household upgrades (first fridge/AC/motorbike). Meanwhile, Western indices look flow-distorted by passive investing and boxed-in fiscal choices, tilting the risk/reward balance toward Asia and away from priced-for-perfection U.S. mega-caps.
2. Core positioning.
   He’s overweight physical gold/PGMs/uranium (vaulted bullion and listed physical vehicles), uses a basket for junior gold (GDXJ) rather than single-name bets, hunts EM micro/small caps starved of passive flows, and keeps ~5% cash for “stink bids.” Bias is toward simple, hard-asset theses with capped downside and clear catalysts, not story stocks.
3. PGMs.
   Supply is concentrated in South Africa and rolling over. Above-ground platinum inventory is <3 months and functionally tighter due to Chinese-held stock. Hybrid adoption in the emerging world sustains catalyst demand. Jewellery/investment add torque. On a money-supply basis platinum hasn’t budged. Ferg sees all of that as symmetric, multi-year setup with fundamental tightness and hated sentiment.
4. Uranium.
   Utilities didn’t (yet) contract above replacement. Term pricing is constrained by weak RFP terms, where producer saw their inflated costs, and several developers are over-contracted and stumbling. Ferg’s pivoted to heavy physical, newly tradable calls on physical, and greenfield developers delaying FID with no legacy offtakes, which he believes has him positioned for a higher-floor/higher-ceiling contract regime, while avoiding miners with sub-optimal books.
5. Process over predictions
   Ferg typically buys post-recap survivors with cash and low/no debt. The seismic industry has caught his attention for such plays now. He’s not looking for flatlined tickers hemorrhaging shares. To understand vessel cycles (rigs/tankers/OSVs), he tracks order books for the next glut. He trims gradually on big winners and rotates into ignored bottom-crawlers with better risk/reward. He also keeps options he intends to exercise, by using limit orders to get paid for others’ forced selling.

Trader Ferg Interview

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