Simon Hunt thinks we are entering one of the most dangerous macro environments in decades. He expects a major US-Israeli military strike on Iran imminently, which will send oil prices well above $150. That oil shock lands on an economy that was already weakening, and the combination means stagflation at best, recession in much of the world by Q3. Simon himself is no longer trying to make a quick buck and he has started preserving wealth in energy, food, and gold. He’s sticking to his $38,000 gold target by 2032, sees a better entry point for copper miners later this year, and is bullish on filling a freezer and planting a vegetable garden.
The Iran ceasefire is not a ceasefire
Simon is said the optimism coming out of Washington is, in his view, a smokescreen. He believes the gap between what Iran will accept and what the US is demanding is unbridgeable, and that a massive air bombardment by the US and Israel is likely in the days following April 20th. His reasoning goes beyond Israeli security. Controlling Iran’s energy resources would hand Washington dominance over the entire Gulf while simultaneously dismantling BRICS by removing Iran as a critical logistical hub for the Global South. The one caveat he offers is that Iran has buried its key infrastructure deep inside granite mountains that bunker-buster bombs cannot penetrate, so the idea of bombing the country into submission is, in his words, wishful thinking.
Stagflation is already baked in and recession is close behind
Even if the conflict ended tomorrow, Simon argues the global economy has already been destabilised beyond a quick fix. The damage isn’t just the crude oil price, it’s the cascading spikes in every derivative product. Diesel, gasoline, sulfur, urea, etc are the inputs that hit manufacturing and households hardest. He draws a direct parallel with the 1973 oil shock, noting there’s always a lag of a couple of quarters before the full impact works through, and that we’re still in that grace period. His view is that stagflation is coming across much of the world by mid-year to Q3, and recession is “almost inevitable” given that the oil shock has landed on top of already-deteriorating debt markets, rising inflation, and weakening credit conditions.
Preserving > Speculating
When it comes to positioning, Simon says this is not the time to reach for returns. The places he points to are energy, food, and gold and silver. Not for spectacular upside, but as real stores of value in a volatile, inflationary world. On copper specifically, he sees the current price strength as a supply squeeze story with sulfuric acid and diesel shortages hammering production and sending copper to a near-term top around $14,000/t, followed by a meaningful correction into Q4 as recession kills physical demand. He believes there will be a better entry point into copper miners later this year. On gold, he’s unmoved by the recent pullback, calls it an overbought correction, and stands by his $38,000 target by 2032 because what gold is really pricing in, he says, is the slow-motion collapse of the Western monetary system.
Simon Hunt Interview
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